TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c309.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes32c292.78$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0946240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c233.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No73c192.63$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.931,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c187.1$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.755,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No68c161.33$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4337669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No70c138.05$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.163,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes33c129.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.94940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No78c128.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6933373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c106$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.263,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c105.52$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3081848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No75c94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.582,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No72c90$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes36c86.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7817241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes37c80.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8317443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes31c80.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.728,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c6…e320backed Yes28c73.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes29c73.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No68c72.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.375,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.742,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2b9abacked Yes30c69.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.841540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc06d…6732backed Yes30c66.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No75c66.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.825049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c66.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.297,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes27c64.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ef…4caabacked No77c64.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.78650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes20c63.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c62.36$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.044,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes33c61.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6360739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No71c57.77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.752,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c55.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.679,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No67c55.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.12,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes27c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c53.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.742,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fe…43a7backed No63c53.03$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.71435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff7…dbfabacked No66c52.1$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5410081%81 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No73c52.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048e…0087backed Yes37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes31c49.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2813738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c49.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a78…f457backed Yes32c46.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-43.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No73c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.351,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes24c43.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2360523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No80c43.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.683,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes29c42.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6524542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Yes34c42.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3123334.3%80 W · 153 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No72c41.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6933351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3510…d8d3backed No72c41.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.512871.4%20 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes31c40.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.847732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No70c40.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.122,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1416339.9%65 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes29c38.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3752828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes30c38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62f6…1199backed Yes28c37.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c0…d4dabacked No69c34.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.815381.1%43 W · 10 L+8.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No77c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.976163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No73c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7742151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.512458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes34c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.222454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No71c28.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4744465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes38c28.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8730652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed No73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.568737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No69c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.422,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c24.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.914,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No65c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No63c23.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.92,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No66c23.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No72c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.512,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No66c22.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8454857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No64c21.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0fe9…56d9backed No71c21.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.385570.9%39 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No72c21.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.095,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed No76c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0423845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No76c20.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.932,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…bbeabacked No73c20.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.417258.3%42 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.788650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8d…d14abacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick75cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No67c19.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5122853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No75c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.752,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No73c18.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1250860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dde…a285backed No67c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.943652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No66c17.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.082,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No78c16.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6982562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked No65c15.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4982742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No70c15.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.581,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f0…b231backed No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.65058%29 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.