TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x36b6…0400backed Yes40c321.04$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.043641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c300$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc90…6c55backed No45c240.24$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes47c236.75$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c195.62$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.78,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c187.1$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.245,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No6c177.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.552,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes68c157.74$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9317241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes47c149.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.681,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No9c140$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.165,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c139.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No14c135.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6860523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No50c133.42$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9289661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes57c126.88$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4222746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No56c119.71$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.864,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No19c118.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.742,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c112.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.773,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3de…1751backed Yes58c111.35$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.12045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes41c105.86$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.931,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No44c105.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.921,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes51c101.08$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.873740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No50c100.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes55c90.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.915044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3494…d0f6backed Yes65c86.14$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.53977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+82.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No28c84.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes52c79.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes52c76.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3517443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c75.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No45c71.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.172,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes46c70.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No48c70.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5711258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes57c68.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.591,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c65.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes55c64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0781848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed Yes47c55.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.568737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes34c55.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1310443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes53c55.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.827,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…3a35backed Yes56c53.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6910536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f59…9e40backed Yes57c53.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.036131.1%19 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes61c51.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3879040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes55c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7142544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05bd…72e2backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No20c49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.022,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No46c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.621,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No54c44.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No44c43.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.133,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No46c41.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.283,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes52c41.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.911346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No50c40.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes48c40.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.947732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes62c40.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0619848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes48c39.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6852828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes59c38.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.819,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No52c38.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes55c38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.16162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked No43c34.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9914954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes55c34.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.423633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No53c34.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0546667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes57c34.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8952446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes53c33.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.063,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c33.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No66c32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes50c31.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes50c30.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe466…7db5backed Yes49c29.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.292181%17 W · 4 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+54.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes61c29.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.681,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No50c29.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4030…bc87backed No52c29.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.143265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No49c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.243,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204c…b31dbacked Yes52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.855932.2%19 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes57c28.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.12,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes50c28.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0525261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No62c26.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb8…7451backed Yes56c26.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.869335.5%33 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes79c26.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.382,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No39c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.052,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes77c25.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.972,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No41c25.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No44c24.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No54c23.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9279255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1253…2129backed No46c23.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1164960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9775…b70dbacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86248.4%30 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3225…d1cfbacked Yes64c17.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c15.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.044,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No71c15.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes79c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.942138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-46%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.