Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc72c62f561a6b3e4c7c5f22e7060b2928df4ae37f73a011d475ee50763ee516c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a5a…d32abacked No | 74c | 726$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.54 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 414.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 391.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 48c | 315.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 291.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 78c | 269.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 212.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 65c | 192.12$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 186.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 45c | 179.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 176$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 71c | 146.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 138$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 80c | 137.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 132.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked Yes | 78c | 130.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 130.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 76c | 125.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 123.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 120.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 115.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 40c | 112.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 107.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 24c | 106.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 76c | 104.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 101.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 71c | 98.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 97.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 93.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed No | 14c | 84.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 81.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 27c | 74.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 69c | 72.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 63.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 35c | 62.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 34c | 61.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 60.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 60.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 68c | 59.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 56.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 35c | 55.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 36c | 54.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 53.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 52.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 52.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 25c | 51.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 26c | 49.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 61c | 49.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 76c | 46.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 30c | 44.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 26c | 42.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…14f4backed Yes | 32c | 40.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 38.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 37.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…9bfabacked Yes | 47c | 37.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 29c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 75c | 35.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 43c | 34.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 66c | 31.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…90d2backed Yes | 65c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 22.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 69c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…9b43backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 79cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.