NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-19.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7afc9da8990b215bf4d8b79bb3d5a6ea11c01dc38d28c61ce93fdb2f97f87d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Rockets, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 48c | 2,204$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Rockets | 50c | 970$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Rockets | 55c | 893.28$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.61 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Bucks | 54c | 658.62$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.98 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Rockets | 51c | 544.51$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.7 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Rockets | 49c | 490$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…44c1backed Rockets | 50c | 388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Bucks | 51c | 386.73$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.67 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…7ee5backed Rockets | 50c | 310$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bucks | 43c | 304$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.98 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Bucks | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rockets | 47c | 200.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Rockets | 49c | 197.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Rockets | 48c | 188.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bucks | 50c | 106.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rockets | 57c | 88.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Bucks | 36c | 84.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Rockets | 57c | 76.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Rockets | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Bucks | 52c | 67.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…acd8backed Bucks | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Rockets | 64c | 51.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Rockets | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Bucks | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…fd56backed Bucks | 52c | 20.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-19.5)this page
- Bucks vs. RocketsRockets won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Myles Turner: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Rockets (-18.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.