NBA · resolved market
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9213bb48ed534eb4807b1e221fc3de94a0ec9b6a7615add506b0fc32df7f4382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 22c | 2,230$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.27 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 78c | 1,824$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.09 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 75c | 553.7$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.29 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…ada3backed No | 78c | 180.18$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 176.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec2…e911backed Yes | 28c | 99.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed Yes | 28c | 95.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…c3b5backed Yes | 23c | 95.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Yes | 20c | 67.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed No | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…c59fbacked No | 69c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 18.5this page
- Bucks vs. RocketsRockets won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Myles Turner: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Rockets (-18.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Rockets (-19.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.