TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes41c830.47$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3441723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes39c774.86$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.911369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+53.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No66c533.44$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.884856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes40c480.7$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.319337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes31c390.85$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2410733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c363$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No58c298.42$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.0628558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes38c287.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes28c255.43$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0711636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c224.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.116336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes18c212.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.36533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c210$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4336055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No68c170.61$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1924637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16a…dd6dbacked No61c162.7$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No70c157.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59f7…b535backed Yes37c153.67$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.22540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No61c152.68$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.716229%18 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No66c152.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.081833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed No71c141.86$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.142955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c125.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.857030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c113.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5232639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c110.28$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.865064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c105.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4118035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fc…aae2backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes33c102.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.864037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes31c102.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.084358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6db…d970backed Yes39c101.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.53943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes24c99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4816934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No63c96.77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.924761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No66c96.13$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.635464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes16c95.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.26812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No71c94.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7214656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c85.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No59c85.4$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.733174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c86…57c5backed Yes24c83.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c82.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1126355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes21c80.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8822111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes30c70.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.23560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes44c70.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.871450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes35c69.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.55341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes35c69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.05666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c64.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.764932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No62c62.83$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8712040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes32c62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.862853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes31c61.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8315355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.615766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes31c58.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1112238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Yes25c58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes26c53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.716330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes35c51.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.997345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes31c51.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1239414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes38c51.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.481526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes34c50.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.182737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No60c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked No62c49.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.85251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c49.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6927521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No59c49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.091968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bea…bab9backed Yes36c46.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No70c46.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.983948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes23c44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0811053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf33…0d65backed Yes33c43.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No70c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes37c40.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.616738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c39.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.938235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4af…a692backed Yes39c39.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No61c38.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.915356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No61c38.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4784…2f0cbacked No80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf6…24f9backed No68c36.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.92560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No62c34.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.063663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52fc…c095backed Yes30c33.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x535e…4b51backed Yes32c32.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e1…77debacked Yes35c32.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No66c30.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1510640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.94963.3%31 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3214467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61163.6%7 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick78cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No65c28.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9513155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No67c27.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.015170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7f1…c062backed No70c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.933063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No68c25.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.042369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c25.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.37951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No67c22.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5739231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No58c22.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.295141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.45345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c17.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6644428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No66c17.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.942544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c17.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4204…165abacked No70c17.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.24875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.