World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4800c4c81b390485cb3090f170f4589a42242da8f1639dbb0361916f3d9618d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 1,076$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 33c | 882.89$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.33 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 39c | 860.3$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 71c | 819.28$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.49 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 74c | 518.87$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 509$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 64c | 495.58$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 422.9$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 398$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 23c | 387.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 19c | 354.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 62c | 325.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 316.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.76 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 272.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 64c | 233.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 222.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 13c | 221.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 15c | 199.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 187.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 177.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 9c | 175.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 10c | 165.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 161.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 10c | 155.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 54c | 144.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 120.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 116.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 112.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 111.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 110.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 67c | 103.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 66c | 100.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 15c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 94.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 92.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 79.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…f4a2backed Yes | 59c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 33c | 73.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 35c | 70.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 64c | 68.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 65.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 62.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 26c | 61.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c86…57c5backed Yes | 38c | 61.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 60c | 60.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Yes | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 55.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 50c | 55.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed Yes | 69c | 51.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 49.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 61c | 49.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…427abacked No | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 47.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 44c | 44.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 46c | 44.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 30c | 44.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 36c | 41.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…d970backed Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 39.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 64c | 39.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 64c | 37.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…849ebacked Yes | 35c | 37.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 46c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 53c | 34.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 44c | 34.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 59c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 33.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 34c | 33.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 33.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…dcc7backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 31.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 49c | 30.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.