Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc82d7b9bf0cd3a5e7cc54eebc938e83fea00fee58c4cd2f40280db901c49888a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 1,799$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,062$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 47c | 562$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.11 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 459.34$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 321$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 289.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 288.29$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 70c | 287.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 34c | 267.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.45 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 263.14$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 47c | 256.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 65c | 228.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 219$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 197$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 195.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 180.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 139.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 115.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 113.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 57c | 112.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 111.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 107.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 105.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 105.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 105$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 55c | 104.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 43c | 95.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 93.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 47c | 88.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 79.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 54c | 78.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfebf…d654backed No | 49c | 74.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 70.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 67.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 63.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 50c | 63.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 61.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 56.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 52.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 47.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 74c | 47.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 48c | 47.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 55c | 45.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 47c | 45.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…70c0backed No | 29c | 43.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 63c | 42.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…e94bbacked Yes | 70c | 41.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…1718backed Yes | 65c | 41.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 40.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 40.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 39.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…490cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 36.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 29c | 35.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 34.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 47c | 33.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 54c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 53c | 30.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 29.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 77c | 28.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 61c | 26.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…6c51backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 53c | 19.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 18.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.