Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf13e5a757c0aa9f39f87a495a0c3ab26d223734f1f98c0a7fac08372c9446d77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 1,822$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.74 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 1,229$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 28c | 799.86$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.27 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 14c | 464.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 462.03$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 408.48$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 386.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 351.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 340$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 302.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.61 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 293$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 288.15$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 203.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 35c | 197.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.02 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 188.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 183.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 183.29$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 32c | 153.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.03 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 149.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 26c | 146.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 19c | 144.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 143.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 24c | 142.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 133$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 125.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 123.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 104.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 101.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 97.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 90.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 90.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 24c | 85.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 80.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 75.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 22c | 73.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 27c | 70.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 63.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 58.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 78c | 58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 23c | 50.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 78c | 48.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 46.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 44.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 27c | 38.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 80c | 32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 79c | 25.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 77c | 25.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 45c | 22.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 78c | 20.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…3caebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 18.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 17.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 73c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.