MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc86a6562354e82595910305f8d0bb5e6dcc9148c16c11afc4d21b6959f897d29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 3,670$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.95 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 2,390$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.91 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,790$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.06 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 1,101$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.7 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 1,100$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 982.55$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 769.91$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.88 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 760.02$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.19 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 683$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.29 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 643.94$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.06 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 496.05$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.58 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 493.74$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.62 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 488.87$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.38 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 307.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 298.2$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 293.7$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 258.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 230.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 230.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 223.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 207.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 154.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 153.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 146.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 138.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 136.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 130.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 114.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 106.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 101.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 93.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 90.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 82.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 79.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 77.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 72.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 65.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 63.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 63.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 54.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 51.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…9419backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 46.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 44.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 43.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 40.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62af…3988backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 39.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 37.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 36.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 35.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 34.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 29.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 27.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 25.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 25.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 25.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 24.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 22.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 21.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…a264backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 18.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.