Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e04fba8bc6d19cf3d53454b05a87a09601e4ff814ab0fc21c22106c6bd17f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 12c | 1,254$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.68 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 1,185$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 8c | 947.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 10c | 920.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 5c | 747$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 9c | 701.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 7c | 573.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 349.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 344.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 78c | 336$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 315.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 22c | 310$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…780bbacked No | 5c | 236.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 25c | 226$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 222.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 218.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 18c | 193$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 9c | 192.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…c6a7backed No | 11c | 191$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 68c | 186.37$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 17c | 166$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 8c | 155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 12c | 139.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 30c | 131.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac9d…c9b9backed No | 11c | 125.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 22c | 122$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 17c | 119.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 58c | 104$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 42c | 104$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…1296backed No | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 17c | 77.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…0370backed Yes | 54c | 74.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 71.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 16c | 62.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…f168backed No | 17c | 61.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 44c | 40.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.