Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9972c9c928331eb0dc500e1f70077146d7b84a67ab0da38634f58c366c5655a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96f3…c324backed No | 0c | 7,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 42c | 5,511$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 4c | 2,172$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked No | 80c | 1,866$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 32c | 1,553$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.41 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,103$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.84 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 30c | 815.25$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.55 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 30c | 774.07$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.12 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 764.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 30c | 652.76$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.88 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 29c | 637.29$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.85 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 55c | 627.35$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.73 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 10c | 619.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.7 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 618.03$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.1 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 567.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.32 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 523.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.55 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 41c | 451.15$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.42 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 13c | 443.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.85 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 20c | 392.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.18 | 363 | 26.4%96 W · 267 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 28c | 377.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.55 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 335.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 10c | 332.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.54 | 214 | 23.8%51 W · 163 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.05 | 151 | 33.1%50 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 22c | 238.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 11c | 224$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.84 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 31c | 218.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 208.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.01 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 16c | 204.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.34 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 55c | 194.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 27c | 171.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 23c | 157$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 148.69$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ed…aea6backed No | 64c | 143.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 135.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 32c | 132.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 31c | 131.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 160 | 33.1%53 W · 107 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 24c | 128.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 28c | 118.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 47c | 118.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 113.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 37c | 108.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 42c | 106.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 23c | 100.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…470dbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 33c | 99.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 245 | 68.2%167 W · 78 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 24c | 96.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Yes | 32c | 93.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…b9bcbacked Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7df5backed Yes | 31c | 64.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 56.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 55.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 55.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 55.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 30c | 49.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 49.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 48.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 46.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 44.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 39.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 38.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 34.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…783dbacked No | 69c | 29.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 28.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 45c | 24.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 20.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 68c | 18.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 63c | 18.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 16.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 12.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.