Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd2ae5eff708f399d7aa53674c0ba5c708fe163cf78f8b21eab8b8486a4acfd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 1c | 7,020$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 8c | 4,904$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.05 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,992$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 1c | 1,074$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 59c | 1,038$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.94 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 13c | 750.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 669.98$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.68 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 563.58$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 42c | 532.64$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.66 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 491.6$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.78 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 490$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.93 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 3c | 459.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 232.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 57c | 210.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 191.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 58c | 173.81$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 170.48$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 46c | 170.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 63c | 156.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 363 | 26.4%96 W · 267 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed No | 45c | 144.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 135.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 132.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 111.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 108.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 62c | 96.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 84.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ed…aea6backed Yes | 41c | 81.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 62c | 79.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…3aaebacked No | 61c | 77.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 76.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 68.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 67.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 41c | 61.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 59.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff02…f6c4backed Yes | 43c | 46.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 78c | 45.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 47c | 44.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 42.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 42.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 39.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…ad7abacked No | 52c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 47c | 34.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 34.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 64c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…739abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 61c | 29.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 36c | 27.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 59c | 26.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 26.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 26.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 25.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 23.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 62c | 22.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 22.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 19.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.