Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02bff3a8c63aebec5d4723289f50d23c31c93532b77157c0cf51faf43fd705b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 24c | 646.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 479.6$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 18c | 469$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 456.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 17c | 366.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 305.16$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 34c | 297.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 32c | 270.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked Yes | 37c | 264.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 24c | 243.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 240.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 474 | 33.1%157 W · 317 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 22c | 189.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 68c | 182.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 159.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 155.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 66c | 146.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 22c | 142.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 32c | 138$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 36c | 137.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 137.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 24c | 123.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 66c | 114.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 113.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 16c | 111.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 108.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 241 | 60.2%145 W · 96 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 31c | 96.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes | 20c | 89.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 22c | 86.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 16c | 85.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 83.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…291ebacked Yes | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…3aaebacked No | 67c | 76.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 33c | 74.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 70.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…739abacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…470dbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 55.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 53.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 29c | 51.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 235 | 54%127 W · 108 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 49.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 47.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 36c | 43.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…f946backed No | 74c | 41.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 35c | 41.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 67c | 41.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 245 | 68.2%167 W · 78 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 37.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 35.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 33.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 68c | 33.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 64c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 31.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 28.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 26.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 65c | 22.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 70c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…19c4backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…783dbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.