Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $235-$240 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9c3745ba814f6b6b3762c822a62ce342111dbceae52740deacccf746b3c43c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfb8…b04cbacked Yes | 12c | 10,374$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,129.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 53c | 7,056$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.81 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 38c | 1,416$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.97 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 23c | 791.59$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 51c | 497.27$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.64 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 53c | 460$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.17 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…9b59backed Yes | 52c | 342.28$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…1b62backed Yes | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 58c | 119$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 106.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…389ebacked Yes | 41c | 99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 88.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 80.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 19c | 65.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 24c | 44.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…c41bbacked Yes | 40c | 32.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d49…4326backed No | 63c | 30.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…4365backed Yes | 50c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…3bd5backed No | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 61c | 26.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35eb…dcaabacked No | 63c | 25.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…4904backed Yes | 55c | 24.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…7226backed No | 72c | 14.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 79c | 14.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $235-$240 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $215-$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $220-$225 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $240-$245 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$215 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.