Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9d6650bfaecbe60a4cea3f3d92ed5fd349af09d5026f429071c9f4e6a9df2e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 276.83$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 74c | 267.23$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 252.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 239.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 226.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 225.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 206$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 49c | 201.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 50c | 195.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 184.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 55c | 180.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 49c | 163.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 47c | 160$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 158.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 29c | 154.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 152.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 55c | 150.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 129.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 117.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 36c | 101.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 53c | 90.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 44c | 86.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 66c | 75.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 71.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…f4eabacked No | 56c | 68.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 68.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 65.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 57.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 49c | 56.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 49c | 52.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 50c | 47.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 46c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 45.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 47c | 45.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 77c | 45.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 51c | 43.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 53c | 41.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 37c | 41.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 40.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 37.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 40c | 37.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 35.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 54c | 33.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 60c | 32.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 47c | 28.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 27.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 25.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…abfdbacked Yes | 60c | 24.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 54c | 24.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 52c | 19.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 52c | 19.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 52c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 54c | 19.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…487abacked Yes | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 79c | 18.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 76c | 17.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.