Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc03c387d31812be8c3aca82d6146f6860f4c4ba4a0870a1bc67bdd0afb1ca02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 773.92$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 76c | 329.68$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.05 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 296.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 35c | 283.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.56 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 202.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 181.31$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 32c | 168.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 168$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 163$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 162.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 159.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 157.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 144.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 143.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 60c | 130$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 115.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 115.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 110.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 31c | 106.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 100.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 98.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 96.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…7e53backed Yes | 24c | 94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 91.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 88.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 36c | 86.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 22c | 81.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 27c | 74.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 26c | 73.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 70.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 67.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 43c | 52.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 20c | 51.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 48.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 24c | 46.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 67c | 43.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 41.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 37c | 40.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 34.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 72c | 32.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 27.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…abfdbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 73c | 23.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 16.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.