South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ddb8ec2185593c3b13e1a0cc19965694d9fea8deebf35c10641c37f19c7d24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 9,908$4,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,991.32 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 5,184$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.61 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 54c | 3,639$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.94 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 52c | 2,788$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.86 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 23c | 2,614$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.15 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 6c | 1,726$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Over | 51c | 1,365$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.97 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 59c | 1,250$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.01 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 55c | 904.3$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 42c | 900.83$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.77 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 25c | 810.59$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.53 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 65c | 776.68$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.17 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 44c | 716.26$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.15 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Over | 35c | 699.16$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.91 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 62c | 630.85$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.42 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 61c | 572.33$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.36 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.48 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 500.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.28 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 53c | 499.96$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 68c | 464.87$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 51c | 424.58$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.04 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 359.23$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 299.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Under | 68c | 249.83$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 51c | 237.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 51c | 223.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.31 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Over | 50c | 210.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Over | 42c | 204.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 6c | 196.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 18c | 186.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 61c | 181.23$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Under | 71c | 175.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 55c | 166.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over | 31c | 161.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…cf38backed Over | 62c | 161.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 41c | 158.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 38c | 152.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 58c | 144$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Under | 40c | 141.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 58c | 129.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…d8f0backed Over | 52c | 129.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 54c | 116.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 32c | 112.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 106.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 101.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Over | 36c | 100.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 37c | 99.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Under | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 17c | 83.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…6533backed Under | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…2763backed Over | 69c | 79.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 52c | 75.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 19c | 62.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 53c | 62.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 61c | 60.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Over | 45c | 58.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Under | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Under | 54c | 52.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Under | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 37c | 49.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under | 46c | 45.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 32c | 36.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 62c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…fcbbbacked Under | 55c | 27.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 53c | 26.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 63c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…c645backed Under | 60c | 25.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…8949backed Under | 52c | 25.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 53c | 23.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Under | 59c | 21.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 0.5this page
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: CA Rosario Central O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 5.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: SC Corinthians Paulista 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)SC Corinthians Paulista won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)SC Corinthians Paulista won
- Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)CA Rosario Central won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.