TailMyPicks
Market

Mls · resolved market

D.C. United SC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,469 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed Over56c52,210$29,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,070.994261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Under44c9,751$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.45743.9%25 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under44c8,501$3,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,740.667549.3%37 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c6,705$2,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,956.753,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under55c4,111$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,242.182171.4%15 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+39.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under45c4,000$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7801,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over53c3,541$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.2927837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under45c2,739$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.3899340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under45c2,500$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.0472850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under45c2,500$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.0470249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe95…1a93backed Under45c1,429$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.42per pick53cpaid-84.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Under43c1,350$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.52128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.7wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-52.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x162c…6c47backed Under55c1,283$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.54148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Under46c1,055$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.776346%29 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Under49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Over57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4302540%10 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4404751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under44c909.09$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005437%20 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Under44c785.43$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.591136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under46c699.44$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.5998945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under77c651.16$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012751.2%65 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Under45c575.31$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3510628.3%30 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under44c564.29$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.2910042%42 W · 58 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over41c547.15$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32111633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Under44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7be…4b60backed Under45c438.72$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.42520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Under44c432.7$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3910338.8%40 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over37c419.74$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.923759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+106.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under43c407$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0113948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Under43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Under45c384.19$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1410753.3%57 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under45c361.98$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.421,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under62c356.9$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.285448.1%26 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Under44c292.5$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.73043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over42c290$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.3635247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under44c288$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7214359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under45c256$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.227047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Under47c240$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.614349%70 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Under44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under55c217.13$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3423350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over48c201$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5222042.7%94 W · 126 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966546.2%30 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under49c189.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2522841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Under44c186.74$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.691154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e0b…f166backed Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.192466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Over56c179$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.764528.9%13 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under48c169.94$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2711144.1%49 W · 62 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Under44c165.17$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.827757.1%44 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under45c165$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.151,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under44c156.05$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8611848.3%57 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under56c150.71$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.44850%24 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.517751.4%91 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over72c138.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0322269.4%154 W · 68 L+31.4wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+33.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under44c138$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7252923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over30c137.17$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5336247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over48c130$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.610249%50 W · 52 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under44c111.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.48454.8%46 W · 38 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8db…7c68backed Under48c109.43$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.431330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed Under43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee4d…5413backed Over20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+72%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf5d…df19backed Under53c94.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under18c92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5192346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under44c87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2226150.2%131 W · 130 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over56c85.76$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1573438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over41c85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2430735.2%108 W · 199 L-32.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under44c80.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3611650.9%59 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over55c79.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under46c71.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1116955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde36…f41cbacked Under44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over46c63.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.14639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc11d…0123backed Under44c58.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.881963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Under44c57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0814560.7%88 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under44c56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6435550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over69c55.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3719172.3%138 W · 53 L+36.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+41.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under44c54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7611055.5%61 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed Under44c52.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.971625%4 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-47.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2220449%100 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6f…1c42backed Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+90.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24ae…d35bbacked Under44c45.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.912147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09cd…9502backed Under44c43.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-42.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under44c43.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2714957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a36…79d3backed Under44c41.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.111428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under43c40.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.513268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa146…6163backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4965…f069backed Under47c37.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Under44c37.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.325954.2%32 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over52c33.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1691553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e6e…2c9bbacked Under48c33.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-79.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under45c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.936646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fe…03cebacked Under44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04c7…2d60backed Under44c29.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.871323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Under44c27.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210450%52 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under44c26.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5219642.9%84 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Over52c25.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.493661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under44c25.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.329654.2%52 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Under44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112146.3%56 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7218…ea41backed Over57c23.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Over49c21.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.92166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa797…dedebacked Over78c21.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6914657.5%84 W · 62 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.