Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca51db83d6e20bb66639451d1ca98724c57a39c587f1e64dfc9d0324151eb306
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked No | 52c | 593.3$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.84 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 582.3$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 59c | 480.97$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.87 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 372.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 289.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 22c | 220.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 209$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 189.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 179.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 169.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 163.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 45c | 162.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 41c | 160.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 130.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 130.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 46c | 128.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 128$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 63c | 124.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 46c | 120.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 40c | 119.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 118.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 40c | 113.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 112.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 109.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 97.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 95.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 65c | 89.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 87.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 82.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 80.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 54c | 79.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 73.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 29c | 68.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 66.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 65.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 61.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 68c | 59.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 53.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 38c | 50.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 34c | 48.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 47.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 40c | 47.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 45c | 45.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 44.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed No | 68c | 44.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 32c | 43.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 57c | 39.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 35.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 32.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 43c | 31.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 46c | 31.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 57c | 30.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…78d1backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 27.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…68f6backed No | 60c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 62c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 61c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.