Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51beeed8aaea034c9c2724861c28fab4dd09c484f5ec09d007cbb96469a2fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6254…1e8cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,719$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,385$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 54c | 1,098$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.8 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 821.94$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 619.24$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 28c | 400$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.16 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 59c | 360.35$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 76c | 349.78$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.32 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2979…d76fbacked Yes | 38c | 269.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 33c | 262.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 237.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 44c | 224.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 219.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 33c | 216.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 214$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 208.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 28c | 200.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 196.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed No | 10c | 191.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 40c | 180.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 179$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 45c | 172.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 167.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 163.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 70c | 143.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 138.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 36c | 132.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 120.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 119.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 114.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 112.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 109.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 106.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…30a5backed Yes | 36c | 99.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 96.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 67c | 93.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 92.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 33c | 87.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 12c | 86.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed No | 19c | 80.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 76.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 26c | 73.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 65c | 73.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 71.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 71.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 56c | 68.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…3daebacked Yes | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 72c | 66.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 23c | 65.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 35c | 61.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 35c | 60.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…11abbacked No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 56.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 55.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 54.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 52.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 51.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 61c | 50.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 50.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…68f6backed Yes | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 46.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 45c | 44.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 34c | 43.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 42.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 40.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 73c | 39.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 39c | 36.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.