South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaff019dc4ef5f208dedd53fa8b2371d732384289c06abf0c3531ee1be0dae33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 68c | 2,894$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.88 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 1,773$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 40c | 971.01$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.3 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 73c | 744.45$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.39 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 30c | 578.96$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.65 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 36c | 490.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.86 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 43c | 367.74$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 327.92$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…917ebacked Yes | 35c | 275.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 269.52$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 78c | 266.94$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked No | 62c | 252.4$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 229.66$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 202.73$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 28c | 200.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 63c | 192.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 54c | 173.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 33c | 149.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…89a7backed Yes | 29c | 127.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…88bdbacked Yes | 29c | 127.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked No | 46c | 108.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 67c | 104.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 65c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 22c | 84.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 28c | 73.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 28c | 68.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 42c | 64.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed No | 62c | 48.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 57c | 46.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 46.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 64c | 43.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 42.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2d…dabbbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 44c | 34.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…ad9bbacked Yes | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb4…9871backed Yes | 36c | 30.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed No | 66c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.