South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d67f3683e58beafff742d7d35095295ab052e0905add853428996e3a7e76b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x540d…122bbacked Yes | 25c | 5,557$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,165.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed No | 78c | 4,151$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 51c | 3,391$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.87 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 2,475$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.73 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Yes | 49c | 2,378$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.35 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 7c | 2,238$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.02 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 2,206$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.95 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 1,787$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.81 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 24c | 1,486$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.08 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 1,482$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed Yes | 32c | 781.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…fe34backed No | 76c | 658.18$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Yes | 27c | 600$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 18c | 562.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.23 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 39c | 513.34$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.34 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked No | 50c | 459.6$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.8 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 43c | 441.31$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.75 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…613ebacked Yes | 24c | 390.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 344.67$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.73 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 344.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.06 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 70c | 319$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.36 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…a9f4backed Yes | 31c | 274.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 269.52$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 28c | 239.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…8211backed No | 75c | 212$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 55c | 191.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 144.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 25c | 112.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 46c | 109.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…a012backed Yes | 28c | 108.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 25c | 98.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 29c | 98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 27c | 91.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 37c | 89.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…41adbacked Yes | 59c | 82.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 24c | 79.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 24c | 79.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 26c | 70.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 18c | 65.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +15.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f9…b54ebacked Yes | 27c | 58.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…9fe7backed No | 76c | 55.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 30c | 55.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 52.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 50.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 29c | 49.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed No | 65c | 46.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Yes | 41c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 30c | 40.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 29c | 39.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed No | 79c | 38.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 71c | 30.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed No | 73c | 25.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 25.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 44c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 59c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 61c | 20.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 73c | 19.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 74c | 14.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?No won
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.