TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: FN Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Phantasmaof FN Esports, Team Phantasma
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$323,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,466 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x61ce…ed13backed Team Phantasma47c61,500$28,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,722.993083.3%25 W · 5 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked FN Esports53c51,508$27,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,161.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff0b…befabacked FN Esports0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a7…4029backed Team Phantasma49c9,071$4,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+116%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed FN Esports52c8,453$4,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,421.558944.9%40 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x924c…8409backed Team Phantasma49c8,384$4,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,234.83580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+62.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Team Phantasma38c7,393$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,593.0661045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9aa…ec83backed Team Phantasma42c7,385$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,319.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed FN Esports54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2403850%19 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked FN Esports49c5,180$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55237245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed FN Esports54c5,169$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.9928361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Team Phantasma47c5,016$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.7218451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed FN Esports50c5,000$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.4839246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdd…23dcbacked Team Phantasma31c4,229$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,918.1817163.2%108 W · 63 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Phantasma33c3,879$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598.781,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed FN Esports58c3,764$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.3914554.5%79 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed FN Esports48c3,480$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,67369756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FN Esports62c2,792$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.892,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed FN Esports67c2,746$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.0264443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FN Esports54c2,715$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.991,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed FN Esports57c2,605$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.962470.8%17 W · 7 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+55.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed FN Esports60c2,563$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.8567931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x442a…f90cbacked Team Phantasma41c2,423$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.621560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FN Esports50c2,405$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.082,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked FN Esports51c2,404$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.3178050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed FN Esports51c2,234$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.2976639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Phantasma74c2,039$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.871,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97dc…31ecbacked Team Phantasma43c2,031$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Team Phantasma28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9940370.2%283 W · 120 L+31.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed FN Esports67c1,704$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.6130247%142 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Phantasma49c1,700$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.992,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab2e…2014backed FN Esports69c1,691$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed FN Esports68c1,690$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.458458.3%49 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked FN Esports78c1,607$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.0628166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed FN Esports65c1,524$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.832,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Team Phantasma32c1,496$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.211,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FN Esports62c1,439$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8961,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b2…deeebacked FN Esports66c1,417$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2299…a570backed Team Phantasma34c1,417$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb51…359dbacked FN Esports53c1,412$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.293458.8%20 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed FN Esports53c1,409$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.6310738.3%41 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Team Phantasma29c1,356$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.0614735.4%52 W · 95 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Team Phantasma34c1,300$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8582,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471d…8b22backed FN Esports54c1,288$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.91425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Team Phantasma40c1,269$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.424852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb9…6da4backed FN Esports63c1,262$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked FN Esports61c1,165$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.6144743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03df…1299backed FN Esports1c1,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514626%38 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked FN Esports62c1,092$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.8832345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked FN Esports69c1,092$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.8920151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked FN Esports59c1,009$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.131,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Phantasma33c1,004$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.823345.5%15 W · 18 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick21cpaid+158.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed FN Esports69c1,000$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.5118549.7%92 W · 93 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed FN Esports53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked FN Esports62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62077131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Team Phantasma61c1,000$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.127343.8%32 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Team Phantasma50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed FN Esports41c997.1$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.9221134.6%73 W · 138 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed FN Esports68c957.18$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.3515056%84 W · 66 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed FN Esports70c955.57$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.918041.7%75 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x750c…2fe3backed FN Esports53c941.48$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.983661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed FN Esports53c940.61$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.523360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team Phantasma38c919.52$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.176953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked FN Esports67c913.44$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.3266843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FN Esports65c894.75$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.352,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Phantasma51c880.26$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.8140237.8%152 W · 250 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed FN Esports66c850$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56142840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FN Esports54c838.97$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.852,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Team Phantasma59c760.94$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.9413249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Team Phantasma45c699.96$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.9837039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Phantasma36c674.58$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.141,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed FN Esports64c670.31$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42920249%99 W · 103 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FN Esports40c661.99$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.713,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed FN Esports54c652$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.0845041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed FN Esports59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3542944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6da…7fbfbacked Team Phantasma45c599.58$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked FN Esports46c576.09$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26310243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed FN Esports66c570$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed FN Esports54c564.02$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.3710356.3%58 W · 45 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed FN Esports20c554.71$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5117325.4%44 W · 129 L-19.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked FN Esports72c552$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.4428837.5%108 W · 180 L-16.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed FN Esports53c547.17$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-55.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed FN Esports51c524.99$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.850749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Team Phantasma49c511.1$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.633143.8%145 W · 186 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked FN Esports53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2656139.3%24 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Team Phantasma32c484.8$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.6619844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed FN Esports47c483.54$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed FN Esports62c480$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.618347%86 W · 97 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ae…6fc3backed FN Esports64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed FN Esports28c464.06$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6913126%34 W · 97 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Phantasma55c461.98$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.891,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Team Phantasma29c438$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.9882554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed FN Esports70c435$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.9896054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Team Phantasma35c404.21$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.6424554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Team Phantasma52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6268557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c67…9896backed Team Phantasma54c370$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.250646%233 W · 273 L+2.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FN Esports41c355.03$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1825923.2%60 W · 199 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Phantasma40c348.35$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.3529143.3%126 W · 165 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed FN Esports46c334.45$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7418350.8%93 W · 90 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed FN Esports30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006858.8%40 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.