TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,607 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Under48c5,669$2,700 inWon+$2,969.3376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over52c5,624$2,946 inLost-$2,946.19,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Over50c1,375$688 inLost-$687.6429652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Under54c965.19$520 inWon+$445.1923550.2%118 W · 117 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over46c697.65$321 inLost-$320.922,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under50c400$200 inWon+$20065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Under50c400$200 inWon+$20024556.3%138 W · 107 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Under50c320$160 inWon+$1608344.6%37 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x042a…7f4cbacked Under55c300$165 inWon+$1353441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over45c243.86$110 inLost-$109.748,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under50c200$100 inWon+$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6719…1e71backed Over9c157.09$13 inLost-$13.361811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Over54c150$81 inLost-$8111351.3%58 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over47c115$54 inLost-$54.052,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bf5…5948backed Over54c102$55 inLost-$55.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c100$47 inWon+$536,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$509941.4%41 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over49c62.63$31 inLost-$30.721,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Over54c41.02$22 inLost-$2228856.9%164 W · 124 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d75…62f4backed Under50c30$15 inWon+$151464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under46c26.02$12 inWon+$14.054,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.