NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda91cb27ab7359ca1499428135abbc10dac7ab495f12a7e16e3757d8db2c4fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $447,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $447,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $447,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 48c | 436,980$208,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208,125.23 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 434,899$227,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207,178.82 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Timberwolves | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 53c | 1,439$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 46c | 1,077$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 656.31$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.28 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Thunder | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Thunder | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 51c | 588$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…d9bdbacked Thunder | 52c | 547.44$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 47c | 501.89$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.89 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Thunder | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Thunder | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a47…0c54backed Thunder | 48c | 359.58$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Thunder | 48c | 290$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Timberwolves | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Thunder | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…a23cbacked Thunder | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Thunder | 53c | 189.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 177.87$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Timberwolves | 48c | 136.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Thunder | 48c | 112.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d6a4backed Thunder | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…272cbacked Thunder | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Thunder | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Thunder | 25c | 93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…8211backed Thunder | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…9691backed Timberwolves | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Thunder | 52c | 75.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883b…ca19backed Timberwolves | 65c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Thunder | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Thunder | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Thunder | 51c | 59.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Thunder | 48c | 54.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Thunder | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…23febacked Thunder | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…19debacked Thunder | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Timberwolves | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 145 | 62.8%91 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…8519backed Thunder | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Thunder | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Thunder | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Thunder | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Thunder | 47c | 34.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…5cddbacked Thunder | 55c | 34.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Thunder | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…21e1backed Thunder | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Thunder | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.