NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8699f5a5d0fe50bf16454213fa35603bbe5078e729f33628bf031d2e699b2ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Over | 54c | 12,000$6,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,479.99 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 9,085$4,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,905.56 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 45c | 4,436$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.97 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 56c | 3,500$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 46c | 3,155$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.38 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 2c | 1,655$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 31c | 723.14$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.2 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 69c | 721.43$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 40c | 580.96$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.48 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 493$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 56c | 395.82$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 44c | 216.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 8c | 206$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 204.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 159.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…6f25backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 70c | 120.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 47c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 60c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 59c | 81.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 31c | 46.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d6a4backed Over | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.