NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f59acee0fc4f974cf4ec69231a6b3eb22a996ba12779f8d682f54f23f2977b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 48c | 10,019$4,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,213.2 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 51c | 7,719$3,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,944.18 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder | 52c | 4,975$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Timberwolves | 50c | 4,206$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.46 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Thunder | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 49c | 3,703$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff7…4bb3backed Thunder | 52c | 1,908$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 1,898$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Thunder | 48c | 1,509$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.43 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 53c | 1,477$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 48c | 627$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Thunder | 49c | 574.59$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.4 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Thunder | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…a857backed Timberwolves | 50c | 466$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Thunder | 53c | 333.96$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Thunder | 49c | 257.22$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Thunder | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Thunder | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Thunder | 51c | 180.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Thunder | 52c | 163.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Timberwolves | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Thunder | 29c | 119.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Thunder | 51c | 114.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Thunder | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Thunder | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Thunder | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Thunder | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Thunder | 50c | 71.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…5e9fbacked Timberwolves | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Thunder | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 50c | 54.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Thunder | 30c | 41.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Timberwolves | 50c | 35.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 145 | 62.8%91 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…7d8dbacked Timberwolves | 70c | 32.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…dfeabacked Timberwolves | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed Thunder | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Timberwolves | 48c | 25.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…9bd6backed Thunder | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.