TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,981 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf42…d698backed Under44c46,258$20,410 inWon+$25,848.1117031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over55c25,564$14,064 inLost-$14,063.839,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over56c21,689$12,146 inLost-$12,145.9852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Over58c6,558$3,804 inLost-$3,803.6415855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Under48c5,253$2,500 inWon+$2,752.8714753.1%78 W · 69 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over54c3,808$2,068 inLost-$2,06843453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Under42c3,569$1,500 inWon+$2,069.1576746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under46c3,500$1,595 inWon+$1,905.1311242%47 W · 65 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under47c1,542$724 inWon+$818.2648347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over54c778$420 inLost-$420.121,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over56c308$172 inLost-$172.486,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over50c282$141 inLost-$14140350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over58c250$145 inLost-$14585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over12c217.35$26 inLost-$25.961,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Over49c204.08$100 inLost-$10047738.2%182 W · 295 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over59c200$118 inLost-$117.911,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6719…1e71backed Over9c158.67$14 inLost-$13.541811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over50c157.16$79 inLost-$78.581,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Over17c108.24$19 inLost-$18.913946.8%65 W · 74 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over54c100$54 inLost-$542,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over57c95.76$55 inLost-$54.584,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…8332backed Over59c78$46 inLost-$46.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over19c63.16$12 inLost-$128446.4%39 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c60.69$29 inLost-$29.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…0997backed Under52c58.88$31 inWon+$28.263961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under42c48$20 inWon+$27.841,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Over56c43.1$24 inLost-$24.1415440.3%62 W · 92 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23ff…94f5backed Under46c43.04$20 inWon+$23.242254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…5abfbacked Under42c41$17 inWon+$23.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x786c…4a00backed Under43c37$16 inWon+$21.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+63.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fb4cbacked Over55c36.36$20 inLost-$2010257.8%59 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eca…576bbacked Under46c34.78$16 inWon+$18.78742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over58c32$19 inLost-$18.562,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under68c30$20 inWon+$9.61,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.