TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,472 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c21,508$11,474 inLost-$11,473.549,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed Under47c17,763$8,349 inWon+$9,414.317031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Under50c4,000$2,000 inWon+$1,999.9351753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c62…01a3backed Over50c3,910$1,955 inLost-$1,9551540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Under45c3,333$1,500 inWon+$1,833.3376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under46c599$276 inWon+$323.466,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over53c300$159 inLost-$1592,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Under46c217.39$100 inWon+$117.399659.4%57 W · 39 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under13c175.69$23 inWon+$152.8539018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over50c89.83$45 inLost-$44.921,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc69…78b3backed Over56c87.5$49 inLost-$494151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over53c50$27 inLost-$26.543453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70a…6a5cbacked Under47c50$24 inWon+$26.52941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Over36c33$12 inLost-$11.8827747.7%132 W · 145 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over55c25$14 inLost-$13.751,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.