La Liga · resolved market
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc0bf90cde5cd9db2369daff1a43262649ceb659d4d12fa5d381c00737cdcf41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x916f…53babacked Over | 50c | 42,590$21,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,295.12 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 50c | 10,206$5,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,103 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Over | 55c | 9,000$4,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,020.27 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…a91ebacked Under | 50c | 8,862$4,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,431 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 45c | 5,803$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.31 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 50c | 4,286$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.99 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…1660backed Under | 50c | 2,768$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 49c | 2,400$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.95 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Over | 50c | 2,368$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 49c | 2,074$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.86 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 2,000$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.58 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 54c | 1,511$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.19 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 49c | 1,421$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.36 | 219 | 57.5%126 W · 93 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 51c | 1,180$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 878.66$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.33 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 50c | 762$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 648.15$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.15 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 640.9$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.43 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 54c | 586.02$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.57 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 398.76$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 329$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.34 | 265 | 50.9%135 W · 130 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…afa6backed Under | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 225.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…c25bbacked Under | 48c | 210$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked Over | 56c | 179.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 152.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Under | 49c | 151.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 47c | 132.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 46c | 131$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Under | 46c | 102.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…4d7abacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Over | 53c | 86.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 51c | 78.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Over | 52c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 204 | 41.7%85 W · 119 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 22c | 66.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Under | 49c | 64.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 64.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 49c | 50.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 266 | 41.4%110 W · 156 L | +15.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Over | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 41.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…639ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…dc7dbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +76%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Over | 52c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 324 | 44.8%145 W · 179 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Over | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9c…5a62backed Under | 51c | 31.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…801ebacked Over | 51c | 30.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 50c | 29.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…7ef9backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 58c | 27.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 79c | 26.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 50c | 23.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 47c | 23.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…df2fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5Over won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.