Music · resolved market
Will Tyler, The Creator's album 'DON'T TAP THE GLASS' have over 200k sales by July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc3941490171477f5b84ac9802c20bd3e9b99c551bb7005e709a074f5fcee9d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 0c | 16,712$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 19c | 3,601$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 9c | 1,895$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.62 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 34c | 1,470$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.97 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 39c | 1,026$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c92…1b05backed No | 50c | 1,009$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 66c | 855.66$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.38 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…8697backed No | 8c | 627.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…57f6backed Yes | 38c | 533.33$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 18c | 504.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 25c | 475.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 78c | 355.97$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 74c | 200.95$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 174$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 145.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 72c | 127.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked Yes | 37c | 119.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 41c | 117$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…8f74backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99dc…b38cbacked Yes | 77c | 80.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…d51cbacked Yes | 54c | 69.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 18c | 67.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +179.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 28c | 52.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…1dc2backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa716…cc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 43.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +289.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ade…fd45backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f2d8backed Yes | 55c | 35.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 37c | 33.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…1388backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 59c | 22.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 72c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.