TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DRX vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DN Freecsof DRX, DN Freecs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$879,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$912,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $879,671 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 629 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x671f…328cbacked DN Freecs54c93,000$49,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,141.336040%24 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae5…ca04backed DRX0c44,620$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed DN Freecs25c41,686$10,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,264.754562.2%28 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+35.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed DRX55c26,428$14,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,425.7217949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed DRX53c22,615$11,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,909.427345.2%33 W · 40 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed DRX71c21,697$15,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,408.911,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked DRX46c19,500$8,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,9705556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed DN Freecs54c19,211$10,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,791.2131644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76e…caa5backed DRX3c18,380$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.7331352.4%164 W · 149 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed DN Freecs29c16,180$4,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,553.111,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed DRX76c13,770$10,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,443.6448157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb813…f0efbacked DRX46c13,325$6,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,186.424332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54b0…df70backed DRX46c13,076$6,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,014.924746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed DN Freecs46c12,500$5,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,722.8514753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed DN Freecs36c12,444$4,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,941.774566.7%30 W · 15 L+9.9wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+56.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed DN Freecs54c11,865$6,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,467.5913453.7%72 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed DRX46c10,861$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.0548742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked DRX50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0005639.3%22 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed DRX46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60021448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked DRX46c9,750$4,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4857754.5%42 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked DN Freecs49c8,117$4,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,105.8415545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed DRX76c8,065$6,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,130.7444843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed DN Freecs51c7,953$4,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,887.951,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed DN Freecs51c7,905$4,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,842.4120438.2%78 W · 126 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9671…3a70backed DRX2c7,453$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.82844.6%13 W · 271 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f4…2dffbacked DN Freecs50c7,269$3,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,614.11291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+99.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed DN Freecs36c7,160$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,598.1541644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked DN Freecs42c7,123$3,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,119.252,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed DN Freecs51c6,685$3,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,255.21,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3107…63b9backed DRX49c6,505$3,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,203.441752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed DN Freecs47c6,399$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,391.6323351.1%119 W · 114 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked DN Freecs47c6,384$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.3913345.1%60 W · 73 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked DRX51c6,005$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.5410535.2%37 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed DN Freecs36c5,498$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,520.3111037.3%41 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DN Freecs38c5,454$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,393.753,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed DN Freecs44c5,200$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,89830243%130 W · 172 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb763…247dbacked DRX46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3002060%12 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+62.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed DN Freecs50c4,688$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.1848448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed DN Freecs48c4,671$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.0812759.8%76 W · 51 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89f9…41f0backed DRX8c4,487$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.771850%9 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked DRX45c4,468$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.596057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed DRX51c4,257$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.0611150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cea…03d4backed DRX46c4,113$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.998929.2%26 W · 63 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x75ff…9aaabacked DRX61c4,088$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.6320%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked DN Freecs50c4,007$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.4859558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x937f…e1a2backed DRX50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked DRX49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.9849940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked DRX51c3,943$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00022547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked DRX65c3,889$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,516.1718961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed DN Freecs53c3,777$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.2918945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DRX53c3,596$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.7482352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed DRX50c3,556$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.7527346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed DRX39c3,297$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a84…3fdabacked DRX50c3,261$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.18966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed DRX52c3,100$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61226246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…04f1backed DN Freecs27c3,008$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.77520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed DRX48c3,005$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44011542.6%49 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed DN Freecs49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.21,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked DN Freecs25c3,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,26078050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…30d5backed DRX46c2,927$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d8…012abacked DRX52c2,650$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.1216236.4%59 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed DRX52c2,633$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.7875342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked DN Freecs50c2,511$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.071,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed DRX51c2,499$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.388651.2%44 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed DRX20c2,486$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed DRX4c2,425$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.197869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed DN Freecs40c2,400$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.9985442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked DRX22c2,282$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.422,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe88b…5250backed DN Freecs49c2,225$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.13450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed DN Freecs53c2,197$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.5976953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed DRX46c2,185$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.3152538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed DRX23c2,168$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.444139%16 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked DN Freecs44c2,120$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.722336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed DRX54c2,014$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.7521836.7%80 W · 138 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6946…5dacbacked DRX50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+83.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf022…1ae9backed DRX4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed DN Freecs44c2,000$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.9919839.9%79 W · 119 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed DRX51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.996139.3%24 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2088…2cafbacked DN Freecs49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked DN Freecs49c1,997$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.5577131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…b8f7backed DN Freecs26c1,993$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.52933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed DRX30c1,959$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.2194134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed DRX52c1,929$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0031040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed DRX46c1,894$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.7218741.2%77 W · 110 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed DRX46c1,871$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.633464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd690…93a6backed DRX41c1,840$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.410160.4%61 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked DRX45c1,811$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.961,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked DRX37c1,800$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66617826.4%47 W · 131 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed DN Freecs46c1,800$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.9944047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b3…b220backed DRX76c1,796$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.835850.8%182 W · 176 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked DN Freecs55c1,740$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.861,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed DRX59c1,700$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5715754.8%86 W · 71 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed DN Freecs56c1,679$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.831,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed DRX39c1,655$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.371,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c96…5da9backed DRX47c1,654$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.551241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe092…477cbacked DN Freecs79c1,654$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.476056.7%34 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DRX27c1,654$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.221,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed DN Freecs49c1,608$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.1554353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed DN Freecs24c1,591$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.4838624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed DRX61c1,581$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.9952650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.