TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ShindeNof Fake do Biru, ShindeN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Fake do Biru44c6,491$2,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,884.8784454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked ShindeN55c4,237$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.539248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked ShindeN46c1,768$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.11,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Fake do Biru41c1,734$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Fake do Biru45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6751,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed ShindeN64c1,419$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.862,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fake do Biru54c1,337$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.942,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fake do Biru50c1,140$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.713,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ShindeN63c1,076$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.742,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked ShindeN50c961.12$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.591,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fake do Biru40c929.53$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.042,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed ShindeN63c876.18$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.1926075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Fake do Biru20c800$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fake do Biru43c757.33$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.761,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Fake do Biru53c727.78$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.3156732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed ShindeN55c712.67$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0657641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fake do Biru53c609.16$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.195,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ShindeN64c606.36$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.366,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed ShindeN63c580.79$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.7578043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Fake do Biru54c555.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked ShindeN53c514.51$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.2822838.6%88 W · 140 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed ShindeN55c506.84$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.0826743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked ShindeN56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22058343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ShindeN76c481.16$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.617,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked ShindeN59c481.1$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2512045%54 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Fake do Biru43c459.25$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.355843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed ShindeN68c459$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.892,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed ShindeN45c444.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.2852951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Fake do Biru46c419$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.145238.3%173 W · 279 L-29.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Fake do Biru46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1845,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ShindeN56c365.63$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.894,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ShindeN51c361.51$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.875,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed ShindeN56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.141,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Fake do Biru45c355.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.162,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked ShindeN57c342.11$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.1111646.6%54 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked ShindeN56c327.3$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0135947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb12…6a81backed ShindeN55c310$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.58548.2%41 W · 44 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Fake do Biru14c295.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.94,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a6b…7450backed ShindeN78c250.58$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.88977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed ShindeN54c240.1$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.151,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81be…a441backed Fake do Biru6c233$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.982825%7 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Fake do Biru40c229.43$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.111,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ShindeN45c222$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.12,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked ShindeN57c220$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.610063%63 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed ShindeN56c207.14$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.144854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa058…21cebacked Fake do Biru44c207.14$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb701…a9e1backed ShindeN61c198$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.585265.4%34 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked ShindeN64c197.61$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7222534.2%77 W · 148 L-19.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Fake do Biru39c197.54$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8924558%142 W · 103 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff6…d07ebacked Fake do Biru51c197.43$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.693046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Fake do Biru35c190.14$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.632,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed ShindeN65c184.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7519447.4%92 W · 102 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…46e5backed ShindeN50c180.16$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.161741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d7…0f36backed ShindeN55c178.18$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Fake do Biru43c157.23$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.164,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Fake do Biru46c151$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8849242.1%207 W · 285 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Fake do Biru32c140$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.436334.2%124 W · 239 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked ShindeN55c140$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ShindeN61c138$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.822,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed ShindeN73c137.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.645863.8%37 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Fake do Biru31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040635.7%145 W · 261 L-33.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf11a…1002backed ShindeN41c121$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3927848.6%135 W · 143 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed ShindeN54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.731731.9%101 W · 216 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d28…6b73backed Fake do Biru16c114.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7f…a8e5backed Fake do Biru17c111.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.968641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4e24backed Fake do Biru46c108.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabdf…3cbcbacked ShindeN55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Fake do Biru18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8963…c780backed Fake do Biru32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed Fake do Biru32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed ShindeN54c98.38$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.263345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked ShindeN55c98.38$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.274647.8%22 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked ShindeN60c98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.240652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ShindeN76c98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.93,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Fake do Biru22c94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.562,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed ShindeN54c94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2438848.5%188 W · 200 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed ShindeN57c93.01$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6814137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4be8…284dbacked ShindeN55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Fake do Biru44c90$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.61,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed ShindeN56c89.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.143756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Fake do Biru32c86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5257935.1%203 W · 376 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c3…d69ebacked ShindeN55c81.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Fake do Biru51c80.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.061,31551.1%672 W · 643 L-99.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked Fake do Biru33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.48735.6%31 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed ShindeN56c72.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7776248.4%369 W · 393 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Fake do Biru50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0555950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Fake do Biru33c69.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.972,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…a1d3backed ShindeN56c69.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6426564.2%170 W · 95 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Fake do Biru45c66.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1554348.6%264 W · 279 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Fake do Biru37c62.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.464452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Fake do Biru39c58.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1238942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed Fake do Biru46c58.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f05…eeb3backed ShindeN75c56.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.138365.1%54 W · 29 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick73cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb45…0c68backed ShindeN58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.725152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked ShindeN72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121,27471.5%911 W · 363 L+3.3wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Fake do Biru42c49.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.855639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ShindeN57c48.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.791,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Fake do Biru40c44.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81,00355.7%559 W · 444 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked ShindeN57c43.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8645450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Fake do Biru36c42.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.251,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.