Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd168faefa50521bd411d8ff43a3a226d70162645fef2adf5bf08cbed66af239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 3,600$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.58 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 3,562$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.92 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 72c | 1,660$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.25 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 30c | 909$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.81 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 614.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.09 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 534.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.67 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 79c | 404.65$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.3 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 122 | 32%39 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 6c | 197.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.96 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 65c | 137.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 12c | 115.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…7eeabacked Under | 75c | 114.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 59c | 110.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 48c | 107.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 80c | 57.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 51.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over | 21c | 49.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Under | 76c | 44.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 38c | 43.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed Under | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-2.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.