TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes59c4,243$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.9510539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes47c2,178$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.251,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes63c1,000$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No52c811.18$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.042,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed No7c673.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5034050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No45c588.23$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0937056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No50c512.02$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.064,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No45c502.41$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.875,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes54c500$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4dd9…3c35backed Yes62c451.05$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.12330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No47c358.31$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c321.24$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.956,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe445…8750backed No41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1232321.7%5 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-55.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No53c266.8$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.164,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No53c260.85$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No39c256.7$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No53c232$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.363,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No39c230$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.152,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c220$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.325,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes49c205.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes55c186.32$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9546743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No52c185.9$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.263,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No9c179.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.768,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes59c169.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.432365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes52c155$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.051,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked Yes55c150$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.510665.1%69 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes53c149.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0218740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes54c149.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.742,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes50c149.76$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.392,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No45c149.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes78c139.78$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1513588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c138.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.537,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c137.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.814,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No38c132$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7233350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c123.65$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.379,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes59c122$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.582,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes55c117.52$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.445,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes54c110.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No39c105.84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.942,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c103.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No21c100.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7482268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a96…c617backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes56c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.53148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1242643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…d964backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf591…b8c7backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x527e…384ebacked No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes57c96$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8335137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes58c95.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.972,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes46c90.06$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.631,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No53c90$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4349551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes58c89$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.231,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No18c85.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0143559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked Yes48c84.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.213351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeae4…5c60backed No51c84.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No48c81.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.242,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes50c81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5613551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes52c76.19$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.891,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes52c76.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.342,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No42c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes45c74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.72,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No35c71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.851,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes73c69.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.054,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.795,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.951,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No55c65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.61,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes64c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.415950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No39c64.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.731,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.554,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.225549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No50c58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.081,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes62c56.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.134,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.562,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes56c55.56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.192,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No55c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No43c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd71…33bcbacked Yes45c54.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes45c54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.749750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.622,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No52c51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5216724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2115246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0aa5…c42fbacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2116148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.525954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.33,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2114745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2116946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2113351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2115545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b8…d8cebacked No52c49.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.715455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c47.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.