TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed No54c4,480$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.921,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes2c1,040$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.411331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes46c700$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.51,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c651.03$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.344,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked No80c626.83$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0516295.7%155 W · 7 L+61.2wins+0.38per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight86+0.33 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes46c578$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.8818043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c542.92$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.514,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes46c489$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.941,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No63c452.64$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7245162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes30c414$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.262,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes46c378.38$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.161,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No71c374.9$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1870741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c322.54$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.318,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c316.9$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c310.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.016,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c286.79$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No68c256.7$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1153855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe8…6e25backed No73c250.71$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.29862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.831,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No58c220.28$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.962,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c220$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.715,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c190.43$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes37c182.1$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.261,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c175.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.115,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c154.25$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.152,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes37c149.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5618740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes37c144.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.551,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No56c139.97$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.581,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes32c133.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6649551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes41c132.05$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.622645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c129.35$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.416,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes43c125$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.351,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes48c124.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes37c121.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8537056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No57c120.96$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.942,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes20c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…cd8abacked Yes46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes45c116.71$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9115032%48 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No55c116.18$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9677555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No60c112.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c111.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.023,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd663…6abcbacked Yes34c111.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No61c108.27$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9687629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes42c107.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.71,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes35c98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5397152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes31c95.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.252,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No64c94.89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes44c93.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.082,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes41c91.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.741,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes26c89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.991,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes30c88.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.332,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No64c84.98$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5913351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes28c84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.822,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.189,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No59c81.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.192,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes32c79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.522,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes32c78.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1135344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No57c77.22$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.233746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb033…4f19backed Yes43c77.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.95343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No51c76.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.241,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes44c75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3372837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes49c73.04$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.815152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes41c72.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.669038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No68c72.18$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes28c72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No55c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.825954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No68c68.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9523666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No58c68.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7910857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No66c68.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.321,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes27c68.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.351,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No69c68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes37c67.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No59c66.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.24,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84c2…c908backed Yes32c66.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.235724.6%14 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c64.03$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.891,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes33c62.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.642,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c61$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.655,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes33c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes26c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes39c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.331,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes28c54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed Yes43c52.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.413852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d9…d032backed Yes39c50.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+84.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.114,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7689…8317backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes34c45.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.582,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes42c45.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9219345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes42c44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x816d…47d0backed No70c42.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.943278.1%25 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c42.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes29c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No52c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4319648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.