Bundesliga · resolved market
FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda27c2b0b8ab925ad3a4fb99325b278e9e65a187d0a0beea278f73b91cc5eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 42c | 21,429$9,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,363.67 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 58c | 11,998$6,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,958.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 42c | 8,037$3,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,671.84 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 58c | 1,972$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.52 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 59c | 1,462$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.65 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 58c | 1,280$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.53 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 693.82$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 52c | 619$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.88 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 41c | 395.08$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 48c | 379.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Over | 46c | 360$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 56c | 347.76$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.85 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Under | 42c | 321.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f6…f337backed Under | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Over | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…3682backed Over | 58c | 297.36$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 38c | 240.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 40c | 218$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 57c | 168.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 59c | 162.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 48c | 131$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…c23abacked Over | 47c | 108.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 58c | 86.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 58c | 85.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Over | 59c | 84.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…e12fbacked Under | 45c | 83.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Over | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x844c…f5f0backed Over | 59c | 77.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Over | 60c | 66.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 59c | 55.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 46c | 53.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 47.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542e…9054backed Over | 60c | 38.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…4361backed Over | 59c | 36.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Over | 57c | 35.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…b79cbacked Over | 58c | 31.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 30.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 57c | 28.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Over | 58c | 24.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…3667backed Over | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…79fbbacked Over | 58c | 20.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fee…6d03backed Over | 58c | 19.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 60c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5this page
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1899 Hoffenheim won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.