Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jan-Lennard Struff
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc08149655c27069f13388facf43deb422aafc8ba5bda1b142e44b434403d13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Struffof Khachanov, Struff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd16a…7691backed Khachanov | 26c | 20,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Struff | 73c | 11,192$8,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,983.39 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Struff | 73c | 5,826$4,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.79 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Struff | 15c | 2,275$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.86 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Khachanov | 69c | 1,455$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Struff | 35c | 1,150$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.5 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Khachanov | 43c | 999.11$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.62 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Struff | 20c | 947.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.06 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…dc71backed Struff | 41c | 946$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Struff | 22c | 591.37$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.38 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Khachanov | 31c | 572.36$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Struff | 74c | 569$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Khachanov | 74c | 535$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.4 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Struff | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Struff | 42c | 317.23$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.01 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Struff | 20c | 297.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Struff | 70c | 291.78$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Khachanov | 27c | 237.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Khachanov | 66c | 225.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…5aeebacked Struff | 20c | 200.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.73 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Khachanov | 49c | 191.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Struff | 32c | 165.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Struff | 41c | 144.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Struff | 76c | 124.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Struff | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Khachanov | 56c | 112.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Struff | 31c | 101.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Khachanov | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Struff | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Khachanov | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Khachanov | 51c | 99.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Struff | 66c | 96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Struff | 33c | 90.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Khachanov | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Khachanov | 66c | 68.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Struff | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Struff | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Khachanov | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Khachanov | 50c | 49.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Struff | 39c | 40.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Khachanov | 61c | 40.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Struff | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Struff | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Khachanov | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Khachanov | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.