NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdcd8adaf823492498fdf65a6ad6d3b28055b976447ea6ac0dc15bb1394d8a3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Rockets, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9315…a744backed Rockets | 57c | 14,000$7,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,980 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…a00abacked Bulls | 43c | 14,000$6,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,980 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 57c | 5,467$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 50c | 3,655$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rockets | 40c | 2,731$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.1 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Bulls | 57c | 2,612$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.67 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls | 44c | 2,253$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.74 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Rockets | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Rockets | 58c | 1,900$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls | 49c | 1,753$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.38 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Rockets | 51c | 1,427$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.53 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rockets | 43c | 1,300$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…cee8backed Bulls | 42c | 1,124$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.17 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…1b5fbacked Bulls | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 46c | 960$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Rockets | 56c | 404$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets | 56c | 267.63$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.85 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Rockets | 58c | 247.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Rockets | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Bulls | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rockets | 56c | 173.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Rockets | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Rockets | 42c | 134.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e1…f855backed Rockets | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 287 | 42.9%123 W · 164 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Bulls | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Rockets | 60c | 83.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Bulls | 41c | 79.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…cb14backed Rockets | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Bulls | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Rockets | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rockets | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…cbccbacked Rockets | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…82fcbacked Rockets | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Bulls | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Rockets | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 59c | 40.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Rockets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Rockets | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc535…6047backed Bulls | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Rockets | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Bulls | 74c | 30.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Rockets | 53c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Rockets | 57c | 26.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Bulls | 45c | 25.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Rockets | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Rockets | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Bulls | 75c | 23.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Rockets | 58c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. RocketsRockets won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.