NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9186005b208c6ec53d4fc5f8fe7eac62457a5fcbf794b2690f7a5f0cda8f17db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1568…7e8fbacked Under | 61c | 5,899$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 3,473$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 1,367$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 1,345$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 1,285$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0724…9091backed Over | 43c | 1,049$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 60c | 741.23$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.23 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 42c | 564.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.86 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 59c | 499.57$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.34 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 40c | 208.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 64c | 208$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 38c | 199.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 43c | 177.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…d47abacked Under | 64c | 173.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 42c | 173$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Under | 61c | 164.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 39c | 147.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 143.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 62c | 141.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 40c | 128.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 80c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 56c | 88.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 56c | 81.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 42c | 49.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 37c | 40.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 63c | 40.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…d2bbbacked Under | 61c | 32.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 40c | 25.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Over | 41c | 25.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d9…9f29backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…6a83backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 60c | 16.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. RocketsRockets won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.