Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd994d723f070df5848c2100946750a272d4b3d2bc8aa7c62aafdd1a7cad01b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 65c | 1,200$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.27 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 734.6$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 60c | 675.82$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.66 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 44c | 603.68$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.94 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 55c | 555.56$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.81 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 299$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 40c | 268.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.53 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 72c | 250.62$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 24c | 203$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 56c | 188.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 164.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 149$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 143.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 131.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 122.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 28c | 99.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 99.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 99.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 39c | 97.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 37c | 96.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 36c | 87.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 84.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 61c | 81.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 77.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 41c | 73.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 59c | 68.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 40c | 63.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 59.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 41c | 57.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 54.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 55c | 53.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked No | 33c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 30c | 49.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 48c | 49.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 74c | 49.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 57c | 48.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 48.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 51c | 46.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 58c | 46.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 72c | 45.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 43.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 38.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 54c | 38.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 38.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 54c | 37.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 34.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 55c | 33.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked Yes | 51c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 62c | 27.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 44c | 26.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 73c | 26.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 26.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 40c | 26.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 42c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 63c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 62c | 16.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.