Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0d6d9068d187d0055ce4970a383097a2077e60114f038b27e8d3407741e1d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 0c | 45,751$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 75c | 14,117$10,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.19 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 24c | 5,813$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 5,042$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.56 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 24c | 4,622$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.38 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 24c | 1,870$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.92 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 76c | 1,520$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.94 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 15c | 1,473$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.19 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af4…183cbacked No | 75c | 1,466$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 1,148$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…3eddbacked Yes | 26c | 1,039$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 3c | 863.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 709.91$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e3…3337backed No | 76c | 698.45$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 555.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…3203backed No | 75c | 449.56$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 76c | 296$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Yes | 25c | 249.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 25c | 234.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 22c | 223.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…3f90backed Yes | 25c | 201.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 201.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 25c | 199.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 25c | 199.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 25c | 176.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…a91ebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…131ebacked Yes | 16c | 122.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…ee06backed Yes | 25c | 121.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 75c | 119.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 75c | 119.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…6fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 117.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 27c | 102.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked Yes | 19c | 96.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 26c | 92.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 25c | 83.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 78c | 76.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 71.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 25c | 65.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 65.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…78febacked Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Yes | 25c | 43.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…945cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 75c | 37.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…b7adbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.