Movies · resolved market
Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce12c8c39be56d47949862c1a4d01d8ff187f70622c889ee81c304c48c3d351b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed No | 1c | 2,650$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 77c | 1,925$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.48 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 50c | 1,233$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.59 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,141$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 50c | 903.1$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.81 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 70c | 816.75$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.6 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 37c | 541$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.37 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…7d32backed Yes | 47c | 355.46$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 18c | 327.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 62c | 305.41$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 47c | 303.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 58c | 225.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked No | 29c | 223.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 25c | 198.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 64c | 175.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…4cb0backed Yes | 66c | 168$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 54c | 158.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 41c | 139.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 38c | 139.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 9c | 129.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 48c | 120.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 108.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 31c | 64.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b1…902fbacked Yes | 77c | 60.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…3babbacked Yes | 70c | 56.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 44.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes | 68c | 40.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 29c | 34.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 48c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 44c | 29.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?this page
- Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?No won
- Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?No won
- Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.