Movies · resolved market
Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e3cd16ef6861092c0c1caaee52873e7f9d7f0e2c162178d1a5da083c2df926f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 7,776$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 8c | 5,795$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.1 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 45c | 4,906$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.05 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 50c | 2,225$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.14 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 42c | 1,750$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 59c | 1,137$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.71 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 32c | 1,117$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.67 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 28c | 823.11$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.42 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 50c | 774$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.41 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 48c | 583.88$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.86 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 578.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 67c | 495.14$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 61c | 420$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95b…b009backed Yes | 39c | 394.23$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 41c | 372.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 244.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 49c | 243.68$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 53c | 205.37$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 60c | 196.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 63c | 118.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 28c | 113$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 48c | 103.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 40c | 99.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 38c | 96.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 41c | 91.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 87.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 49c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 58c | 56.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…d0d3backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…6be5backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?this page
- Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?Yes won
- Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?No won
- Will "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.