South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce292e361999f9b0a5db6de743f118a908d4d76541ddaaeef816595f0b7043df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 35c | 2,450$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.38 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes | 31c | 2,223$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.69 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 32c | 2,058$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.92 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 1,945$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.64 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 37c | 1,791$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.02 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 1,137$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.13 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 67c | 1,033$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.19 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 59c | 1,026$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.11 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 32c | 974$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.27 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Yes | 32c | 937.47$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.74 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 56c | 838.49$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.18 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 34c | 718.2$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.49 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 53c | 595.1$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.82 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 33c | 532$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.88 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 68c | 530.91$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 63c | 499.31$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 32c | 489.69$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.7 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 47c | 486.59$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…ba40backed No | 74c | 450.73$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 57c | 435.19$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3163…9243backed Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed No | 28c | 370$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.55 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 61c | 295.43$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 70c | 251.53$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 64c | 249$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 22c | 248.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 71c | 222.9$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Yes | 27c | 207.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yes | 61c | 198.65$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a3f4backed Yes | 71c | 197.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Yes | 53c | 187.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 72c | 178.93$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafab…8991backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 56c | 166$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 161.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…5269backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 65c | 152$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 35c | 144.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 51c | 141.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 62c | 131.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 40c | 124.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 59c | 122.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 27c | 113.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 110.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 28c | 106.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…da5ebacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 22c | 92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 64c | 89.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 65c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 36c | 75.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f2…b224backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…0e7abacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 43c | 65.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…516fbacked Yes | 35c | 62.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 33c | 60.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Yes | 33c | 40.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 57c | 37.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 31.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 35c | 31.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…f0eabacked Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 74c | 24.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 68c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1bd5backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…dcddbacked Yes | 66c | 16.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30?No won
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.