Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce352f9e621abd63283611391f3b46bca7e1a2215b2c95edb26a5462a3002ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 57c | 1,033$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.85 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 39c | 664.69$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.69 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 46c | 485.33$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.93 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 466.18$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 48c | 456.55$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.41 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 45c | 327.1$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 43c | 300.71$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 291.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 281.24$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 13c | 238.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 13c | 226.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 222.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 217.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 59c | 216.66$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 212$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 209.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 206.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 203.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 199.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 56c | 186.06$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 157.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 144.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 142.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 140$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 75c | 133.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 115.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 44c | 112.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 107.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 107.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 43c | 97.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 57c | 82.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 77.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 66c | 72.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 41c | 72.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 35c | 71.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked Yes | 48c | 70.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…e63cbacked Yes | 32c | 70.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 69.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 43c | 68.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 64.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 63.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 31c | 54.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 54.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 50.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 22c | 47.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 41.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 40.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 48c | 37.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 36.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…f2acbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 30.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 30.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 76c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 24.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 58c | 23.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 68c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 69c | 18.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.