Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d3c820fdf4579078a2aa9a421b151b027c4b15b844ad8be645f39d7e2c1b6b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1355…c64fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 40c | 643.77$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 252.14$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 205.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 201.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 63c | 184.04$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 134.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 114.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 109.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 107$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 103.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 30c | 91.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 79c | 88.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 76.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 71c | 70.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 24c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 38c | 60.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 34c | 54.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 51.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 65c | 48.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a50cbacked No | 76c | 43.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…98b8backed Yes | 68c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 42.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4856…86debacked Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 40.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 33c | 37.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 34.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 34.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 28.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…4cd5backed No | 65c | 27.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 51c | 27.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 69c | 23.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 18.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 71c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.