MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb53062f29520e55656fee8d106450ce069d4cf8427e5fa2ba4dbe89bf64ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 20,602$10,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,918.97 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 15,500$7,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,215 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 5,894$3,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,265.23 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 5,211$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.72 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 5,208$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.85 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…dcafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 3,900$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 2,541$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.93 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 2,072$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.09 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 1,626$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.03 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 1,622$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.53 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.56 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 875.47$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 690$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 13c | 411$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 107 | 19.6%21 W · 86 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 356.61$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 347.18$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…fec8backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 300$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 282.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 263.44$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 193.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 142.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 99.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 87.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 56.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 54.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 45.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…ee65backed Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.