TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$372,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$431,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,141 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 303 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons56c53,521$30,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,059.541,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons45c36,481$16,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,250.872,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Spirit45c29,106$13,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,025.8840051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Spirit53c11,421$6,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,370.3189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons55c10,947$5,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,987.7496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Falcons70c10,160$7,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,09620159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit52c10,021$5,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,780.6348954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit46c8,150$3,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,365.281,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit46c8,083$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,362.481,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Team Falcons58c7,932$4,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600.7310751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit43c7,768$3,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400.751,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Spirit42c7,537$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,346.7469644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Spirit62c6,555$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.6641056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Falcons42c6,000$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.4351049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Spirit43c5,693$2,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,265.8631248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Spirit42c5,290$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,068.4825549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Team Spirit43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,85011547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Spirit44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9922848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Team Falcons53c4,463$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3866569.2%45 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Falcons52c4,226$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.450347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Spirit57c4,111$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.4179859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Falcons55c3,751$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.4753764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Falcons52c3,629$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.125446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit60c3,285$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.5356548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit43c3,155$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.771,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Team Spirit46c3,018$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.5924153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Spirit45c2,937$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.4134544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Falcons51c2,918$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50043344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Spirit49c2,729$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.2645750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Spirit44c2,729$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.7758744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Falcons46c2,707$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.5535062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit50c2,291$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.5889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons49c2,043$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.762,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x449c…eaf5backed Team Spirit43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1405848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit79c1,986$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.8186659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Team Spirit73c1,898$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.9517373.4%127 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Spirit44c1,892$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.4756955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Team Spirit44c1,892$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.5213851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons34c1,865$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.7599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Falcons55c1,820$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Falcons24c1,791$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.8854753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons41c1,755$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.141,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Spirit49c1,755$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.7668649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Spirit44c1,742$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.544645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Team Spirit46c1,705$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.7525248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e4…bb22backed Team Spirit79c1,644$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.225100%5 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Spirit71c1,617$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.6392056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons55c1,547$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.9160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons55c1,529$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.5442650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Team Spirit67c1,505$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.6830356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Team Falcons1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15350%0 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62a9…3bb6backed Team Falcons68c1,473$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Falcons24c1,423$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.4639343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Spirit43c1,410$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.3660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons58c1,402$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.3977256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Falcons21c1,384$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Spirit48c1,343$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.6350832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Falcons53c1,332$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70018356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Spirit44c1,300$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72847646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Team Falcons50c1,296$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.8130356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Spirit52c1,269$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.0735758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Spirit44c1,250$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Team Spirit55c1,234$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.926956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Falcons20c1,156$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7954246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Spirit51c1,154$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.581,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Spirit42c1,123$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.6356542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Team Spirit45c1,116$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.835151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1866…1325backed Team Spirit33c1,087$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.881838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Spirit43c1,034$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.3888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons58c1,008$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.8980443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Team Spirit46c1,004$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.1821146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Spirit48c1,003$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.4244149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Spirit46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Team Falcons55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9918550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Team Falcons61c989.17$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60021346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons52c982.89$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.011,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Team Falcons36c961.6$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3455950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Spirit54c929.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.5457449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Spirit54c921.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.2761745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Team Spirit59c902.22$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.522461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons55c877.19$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.4571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Falcons24c812$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8836851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Spirit61c750$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.521264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Team Spirit45c719.82$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.2816242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Team Spirit44c669.17$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.1752649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons60c625$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37539660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Spirit43c620$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.465441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Falcons49c603.29$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6115946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons50c595.94$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.851,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Spirit38c592.49$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.3848539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Spirit42c572.75$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.581,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons55c565.97$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.2829548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbf…c53cbacked Team Spirit46c543.69$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.692458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Team Falcons64c536.99$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.678868.2%60 W · 28 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Team Spirit73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13520767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Spirit44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28017146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Spirit44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Falcons37c500$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Team Falcons55c491.21$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.8426550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.